Squadrop
An autonomous quant engine running on Hermes. It aggregates signals from 15+ scanners across US and AU markets, scores conviction on a 10-point scale, tracks calibration against real outcomes, and monitors positions. Every prediction is evaluated. Every outcome feeds back into the weights.
VIX
16.22
MID
Signals
814
tracked
Threshold
≥7/10
conviction gate
Outcomes
50,951↑0.7pp
53.0% hit rate
Last Run
1m ago
data refresh
Active Positions
Live trades with conviction ≥ 7/10. Managed by the morning session at 9am AEST Mon-Fri.
No active positions
Morning session fires 9am AEST Mon-Fri — positions activate when conviction ≥ 7/10
Calibration
Does the conviction score actually predict outcomes? Higher buckets should have higher hit rates. If they don't, the engine is broken.
Low
4681
48.8%
2286h 2395m
Weak
125
60.0%
75h 50m
Watch
339
77.0%
261h 78m
Trade
366
77.0%
282h 84m
Ticker Performance
| Ticker | Signals | Hit Rate | Avg Conv | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AKAM | 1062 | 96.2% | 1.0 | +5.7% |
| RKLB | 996 | 96.3% | 1.0 | +9.7% |
| INTC | 746 | 46.2% | 0.7 | +3.2% |
| SITM | 706 | 73.1% | 6.2 | +4.3% |
| SIQ | 662 | 65.1% | 0.9 | +3.0% |
| MU | 539 | 36.4% | 0.8 | +4.0% |
| DDOG | 527 | 68.2% | 7.2 | +5.4% |
| FTNT | 526 | 62.1% | 1.4 | +5.3% |
| MLX | 506 | 92.1% | 1.0 | +2.5% |
| NET | 504 | 92.0% | 1.0 | -1.3% |
| HUBS | 501 | 0.0% | 1.0 | +1.9% |
| DGT | 498 | 65.5% | 1.0 | -15.5% |
| TOST | 486 | 72.7% | 1.1 | -2.2% |
| MMS | 482 | 0.0% | 0.8 | +1.8% |
| MNST | 474 | 44.8% | 1.0 | +5.3% |
Watching
Conviction building but not yet at entry threshold. These graduate to Active when the morning session confirms ≥ 7/10.
No watching positions
Positions appear here when conviction is building but hasn't crossed the entry threshold
Signal Type Edge
| Type | Count | Hit Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| price surge | 12027 | 55.9% | +0.1% |
| rsi extreme | 11446 | 38.2% | -0.0% |
| bb breakout | 5107 | 73.2% | +0.1% |
| proximity 52w | 3614 | 51.6% | -0.0% |
| macd crossover | 3489 | 70.7% | +0.0% |
| volume climax | 3147 | 58.5% | +0.1% |
| vol expansion | 3109 | 54.7% | +0.2% |
| adx trend | 3085 | 46.3% | -0.0% |
| premarket surge | 2031 | 59.5% | +0.5% |
| stoch extreme | 1773 | 71.4% | -0.0% |
| vwap deviation | 1306 | 61.5% | +0.1% |
| correlation | 402 | 59.6% | +0.1% |
| short squeeze | 114 | 71.4% | +0.2% |
| z score | 111 | 0.0% | -0.3% |
| breakout | 43 | 57.1% | -0.4% |
| insider trade | 42 | 70.0% | +0.3% |
| lead lag | 42 | 70.0% | +0.7% |
| reaction play | 28 | 100.0% | -0.9% |
| divergence | 21 | 0.0% | +0.5% |
Recent Signals
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 97045320.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}13h ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 97045320.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}13h ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 97045320.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}17h ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 97045320.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}17h ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 97045320.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 97045320.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBearish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": -25.000000000000007, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBullish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": 33.33333333333334, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBullish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": 33.33333333333334, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBullish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": 33.33333333333334, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBullish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": 33.33333333333334, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}1d ago
14Dprice surgeBullish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": 33.33333333333334, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}2d ago
14Dprice surgeBullish signal: price_surge — {"name": "14D", "change_pct": 33.33333333333334, "market_cap": 72783990.0, "sector": "Producer Manufacturing"}2d ago
49Mhalt liftedEvent signal: halt_lifted — {"ticker": "49M", "type": "halt_lifted"}50m ago
4DXvol expansionBearish signal: vol_expansion — {"name": "4DX", "vol_ratio": 3.7, "volatility": 16.666666666666682, "sector": "Technology Services"}13h ago
4DXvol expansionBearish signal: vol_expansion — {"name": "4DX", "vol_ratio": 3.7, "volatility": 16.666666666666682, "sector": "Technology Services"}13h ago
4DXvol expansionBearish signal: vol_expansion — {"name": "4DX", "vol_ratio": 3.7, "volatility": 16.666666666666682, "sector": "Technology Services"}17h ago
4DXvol expansionBearish signal: vol_expansion — {"name": "4DX", "vol_ratio": 3.7, "volatility": 16.666666666666682, "sector": "Technology Services"}17h ago
4DXvol expansionBearish signal: vol_expansion — {"name": "4DX", "vol_ratio": 3.7, "volatility": 16.666666666666682, "sector": "Technology Services"}1d ago
Conviction Trend
Hit rate over time. Each bar = one data snapshot. Bars split green (hits) / red (misses). Dashed line = 50% breakeven.
50%
▼AAON
2026-05-082026-05-13
Hits Misses 50%▼ Entry
Conviction Category Edge
IV
894
74.8%
+2.9%
Tech
5457
52.3%
+1.1%
Catalyst
624
78.4%
+5.5%
Flow
830
74.5%
+3.0%
Stat
830
74.5%
+3.0%
Which conviction dimension actually predicts outcomes? Catalyst (77.6% hit rate on 76 samples) dwarfs Technical (49.9% on 1279).
Pipeline Health
Predictions45,336
Evaluation Queue135,723
Queued52,940
Resolved82,783
Eligible Scored Pending Expired
Scanner Edge
| Scanner | Ticker | Scored | Hit Rate | Avg Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| attention mispricing | GME | 16 | 0.0% | -7.7% |
| premarket scanner | ORI | 6 | 100.0% | -2.2% |
| dislocation scanner | GME | 3 | 0.0% | -4.3% |
| pattern engine | GME | 3 | 0.0% | -7.6% |
| pattern engine | GDX | 2 | 0.0% | +0.4% |
| pattern engine | BHP | 2 | 50.0% | +1.7% |
| pattern engine | FCX | 1 | 100.0% | +0.3% |
| pattern engine | US 10Y | 1 | 100.0% | +0.1% |
| pattern engine | INOD | 1 | 100.0% | +0.6% |
| pattern engine | AAPL | 1 | 100.0% | +0.3% |
| pattern engine | TSLA | 1 | 100.0% | +0.2% |
| pattern engine | XAU/USD | 1 | 0.0% | +0.6% |
Run History20 runs • 0 tokens total
| Job | Tokens | Latency | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | 1.0s | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| orchestrator | — | — | ok |
| market_snapshot | — | 19.0s | silent |
| orchestrator | — | 1.0s | ok |